Skip to main content
A research record — not a forecast, not advice

We read Bitcoin's risk of a sharp drop — in the open.

You hold Bitcoin. You don't want to watch charts all day. Once a day we read how exposed the market looks to a steep decline, and publish it — win or lose, never edited after. We watch Bitcoin so you don't have to.

Free to read · Still in validation · Nothing for sale yet

Today's downside-risk readingExample reading
Elevated
CalmElevated

The real reading updates daily on the dashboard.

A research reading — not a signal to act on.

Anchored to Bitcoin

You don't have to take our word for the dates.

Our published track record through June 2026 is timestamped on the Bitcoin blockchain (block 955,461) via an OpenTimestamps proof. The date of every published reading is independently provable, and any later edit to the record would be detectable.

See the frozen fingerprint, its Bitcoin timestamp, and the exact steps to verify both — independently verifiable.

OpenTimestamps proof
Bitcoin mainnet

Anchored in (block 955,461)

Check it yourself →

Scoped and tamper-evident — any later edit would be detectable.

The heads-up

We watch Bitcoin so you don't have to.

No dashboards to monitor, no jargon to learn. Once this is live, when our daily read of downside risk shifts you'd get a plain-language heads-up — so you hear about it from us instead of finding out the hard way.

StateTilt <alerts@statetilt.com>

Heads-up: today's Bitcoin reading moved higher.

CalmElevated

Our daily read of Bitcoin's downside risk shifted from calm to elevated. Here's what that means in plain terms, and what we'll be watching next — no action required.

Read today's note →Example — not a published alert
The open record

Every win sits next to every loss.

We publish every reading on a fixed schedule, then leave it untouched. Below is the shape of our recent daily reads at a glance — a mark for each day, calm to elevated.

Daily downside-risk reads · recent weeksIllustrative pattern
CalmWatchElevatedToday

A research reading — not a signal to act on.

+440.6% research-window excess return vs BTC buy-and-hold (2023-01-01 → 2026-03-12) Research result, not a live performance claim. Tested on BTC window 2023-01-01 to 2026-03-12; validation and operational-readiness checks remain in progress.

This is a single back-tested result over a single window — not a promise about the future. The point of publishing every reading is so you can judge the record yourself, in full.

Where this is heading — the goal we're building toward

Today we read danger. That's the starting point — not the whole idea.

This early model reads a single thing: the downside risk of a sharp drop. If it proves itself, more models follow — building toward a market-intelligence platform that watches the market so you don't have to. The roadmap below is where we're headed, not something on sale today.

Now

Danger

Reading Bitcoin's risk of a sharp drop, once a day, in the open.

In validation
Next

Opportunity

The other side of the read — if and when the danger model proves out.

Planned
The vision

Broader markets

More markets and models in a single place — a clear heads-up instead of constant watching.

Exploring
How we publish

We wait until a reading has played out — then publish it, win or lose.

We hold each one for about two weeks until it has fully played out in the market, then publish it with its real result attached, on a fixed schedule — so every win sits next to every loss, and nothing gets cherry-picked.

Read, then wait

Each day's reading is recorded, then held until it has fully played out in the market.

Publish on a schedule

Every reading is published with its real result attached — on a fixed schedule, win or lose.

Never edited after

Once published, a reading stays put. The dates are anchored to Bitcoin, so any later edit would be detectable.

Nothing for sale yet

We'll tell you the moment the live readings open.

StateTilt is free to read and still in validation. Leave your email and we'll let you know when it's live — no spam, no pitch.

By joining you accept the Privacy Policy.

StateTilt is a research and information surface — not financial, investment, trading, tax, or legal advice. Readings are research records, not forecasts.