How StateTilt reads the market.
We are testing this method in the open and have not established that it works.
Each daily reading estimates a single thing: how likely Bitcoin is to fall more than 10% below the opening price of the reading's own day at some point in the 10 days that begin with that open. Those are 10 calendar days, not trading days, because Bitcoin trades every day; the fall is measured from that opening price down to the lowest price reached inside the window; and it has to be more than 10%, so a fall of exactly 10% does not count. It's a risk-of-a-drop estimate, not a price forecast, and not advice. We describe what the market looks like today. We don't promise what it will do.
Structural, not predictive.
Most market models try to predict the next move. StateTilt is built around a different question: what does today actually look like, structurally, in the context of the regime around it? The system reads each session as a unit — its character, its volume profile, its position relative to nearby reference levels — and asks how that reading maps onto historical patterns.
We describe regime conditions. We do not forecast prices. We do not promise specific outcomes.
This page describes the methodology and is not investment advice.
- Caveat
Past behaviour of any methodology, indicator, or model output is not a reliable guide to its future behaviour.
- Caveat
StateTilt makes no claim about the predictive accuracy of any published reading. Methodology choices reflect researcher judgement.
- Caveat
Markets change. Macro regimes change. Asset microstructure changes. The framework is reviewed against those changes, not assumed against them.
- Caveat
Subscribers must assume any sum committed to crypto-assets could be lost in full and should not commit funds they cannot afford to lose.