Frequently asked questions

Each daily reading estimates a single thing: how likely Bitcoin is to suffer a significant drop -- a fall of roughly 10% or more from a recent peak -- over about the next 10 trading days. It is a risk-of-a-drop estimate, not a price forecast, and not advice.

The service launches when independent review of the validation evidence concludes. There is no fixed date -- the work is gated by review completion, not by a calendar.

The countdown on the home page tracks the validation window, not a launch date. When the window closes, a launch decision is made on the evidence.

Public methodology pages, the historical research record once review opens it, and this site's writing. No live indicator and no actionable signal is published in any tier yet.

It is a look back at how the methodology would have behaved on past data — never a live or real-time call, and always shown with plain caveats about how far the outcomes have been allowed to play out. See the methodology page for the full framing, and the track-record page, where past readings will appear once they are published.

We will say so plainly, and the service will not activate as a live indicator. The chassis remains for adjacent research projects. Subscribers will not be charged for a service that does not pass validation.

Because shipping a market-state indicator that has not passed independent review is a poor outcome for users. We are willing to take longer to be honest about what we know. The publication-lag window exists for the same reason -- see Methodology.

Most holders here DCA — adding a fixed amount on a schedule. That is a sound approach and we are not here to change it. What a daily risk reading adds is information a steady accumulator can use: whether conditions right now look structurally fragile — more exposed to a further drop — or relatively calm. Some treat that as context for when to add this period's amount and when to wait for calmer conditions; others keep accumulating on schedule regardless. It also flags when elevated risk has eased. Either way it describes conditions — it never tells you what to do with your position — and we will not claim that timing your additions this way beats accumulating on a fixed schedule until the evidence says so. And it spares you the screen: a single calm read each day instead of refreshing the chart to be sure you are not the last to know.

Our methodology is developed by a state-of-AI research system. Every change is cross-reviewed by an independent model and logged with the evidence behind it before it ships — nothing goes live on a single verdict.

The publication-lag window is what makes the audit chain audit-able. By the time a reading is visible on the free surface, the market has already responded and the outcome can be evaluated on the same surface that publishes the call. It rules out the back-pressure to silently update a wrong call after the fact. See the methodology page for the full framing.

StateTilt describes structural conditions on a daily cadence and a divergence layer on intraday cadence. It is not a high-frequency execution tool. Active traders should treat any published reading as a single input among many in their own process.

Yes -- methodology choices reflect researcher judgement and are revised as data accumulates and as markets change. Every methodology decision is logged on the audit chain, including the ones we reversed. Bug fixes and calibration changes can amend the historical research-track-record displayed on the site.

It is exactly the right question to ask anyone selling a market signal.

The honest answer starts here: we are not selling a secret you have to take on faith — we are selling a record you can check. Every reading is published and timestamped so it cannot be quietly changed after the fact. A hidden 'edge' is precisely what stops you from auditing it; ours is built to be audited.

There is also a reason sharing it does not erode it. This is a read on structural market conditions — the underlying state of the market — not a fleeting price-action trade that others can front-run or crowd out. A fast 'this exact price right now' signal decays the moment everyone piles into it; a daily read of whether the regime is fragile or calm does not, because its value is in helping you see and manage downside risk, not in racing others to a momentary mispricing. More people seeing it does not use it up.

And we do not claim a proven edge yet. We are pre-launch, testing in the open whether this beats simply holding Bitcoin, and we will publish that result either way. A secret system you are asked to trust blindly is what this industry is full of — and the opposite of what we are building.

The paid BTC tier activates after independent review concludes and the service activates as a live indicator. Until then, the paid tier is described on the pricing page but is not buyable. No charges occur before activation.

At launch, subscriptions will be monthly and sold through Lemon Squeezy as merchant of record. Subscribers will be able to cancel anytime from their account dashboard; cancellation takes effect at the end of the current billing cycle and stops further renewals. Cancelling does not refund the current cycle. Statutory consumer-protection rights apply where mandated by law.

At launch: monthly subscription, cancel anytime from your account dashboard. Cancelling stops further renewals; it does not refund the current billing cycle. StateTilt does not offer refunds for digital subscription content except where consumer-protection law requires -- for example, the EU right of withdrawal, subject to the immediate-provision consent described at checkout. See the terms page.

Bitcoin is the focus today. The chassis is built so coverage of additional assets can extend with the same governance discipline. US Equities is scoped for after BTC operational launch; additional markets and bundles are under exploration. Scope and timing are announced when ready -- never before.

The BTC tier remains. All-access pricing -- covering BTC plus US Equities plus future modules -- will be announced when US Equities ships. Subscribers who joined the BTC tier before that point will be considered for grandfathering, subject to the published terms at launch.