Risk disclosure

Bitcoin and other crypto-assets are highly volatile. Prices can move sharply within minutes, hours, or days, in either direction, and total loss of capital is possible. Crypto markets operate continuously across global venues, and liquidity may deteriorate without warning, causing wide bid-ask spreads, cascading liquidations, and trade-execution gaps. Subscribers must assume that any sum committed to crypto-assets could be lost in full and should not commit funds they cannot afford to lose.

StateTilt publishes general analytical commentary and a historical research-track-record concerning cryptocurrency markets. StateTilt does not give personal investment advice, does not recommend any specific transaction, and does not tailor any communication to a particular subscriber's financial situation, objectives, or risk profile. StateTilt is not registered as an investment adviser, commodity trading advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner with any regulator, and its publications fall within the publisher's exclusion that United States courts have applied to general-circulation financial publications. Subscribers requiring advice tailored to their own circumstances should consult a qualified, licensed adviser in their jurisdiction.

Pre-launch material on StateTilt presents historical research-track-record performance: how the methodology would have behaved across a defined backtest window using data that was available at each historical date. Such material is inherently retrospective. It does not represent live trading, does not reflect actual subscriber outcomes, and is not indicative of future performance. The disclaimers required by CFTC § 4.41(b)(1) for hypothetical or simulated performance apply with full force: hypothetical results have many inherent limitations, including that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight and do not capture the financial-risk tolerance, execution friction, or behavioural pressure of real trading.

Past behaviour of any methodology, indicator, or model output is not a reliable guide to its future behaviour. Markets change, macro regimes change, asset-microstructure changes, and the statistical properties of crypto markets in particular have shifted materially across cycles. Subscribers should not extrapolate historical results to make predictions about future returns and should not assume that an indicator that has been consistent over a sample window will continue to be consistent on data outside that window.

StateTilt does not publish actionable transaction signals, does not issue trade instructions, and does not facilitate the placing or execution of any order. StateTilt does not provide leverage, margin financing, derivative products, custody services, transfer services, or any service that the European Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1114) would categorise as a regulated crypto-asset service. Anything on StateTilt is research material to be evaluated by the subscriber alongside other information sources and the subscriber's own due diligence.

StateTilt makes no claim about the predictive accuracy of any published reading. Data feeds may be delayed or incorrect. Methodology choices reflect researcher judgement and may be revised. Bug fixes, calibration changes, and methodology revisions can change the historical research-track-record displayed on the site. Subscribers should not treat any StateTilt output as a guarantee of any future market state.

Notification delivery may fail. Vendor outages (including the Telegram bot delivery planned for the paid tier), email deliverability degradation, and infrastructure failures can cause notifications to arrive late or not at all. Site availability is not guaranteed and dashboards may go offline for maintenance, infrastructure incidents, or vendor-side outages. Subscription-billing disruptions can cause the subscription to lapse and notifications to stop.

Crypto regulation is evolving rapidly across jurisdictions. Service availability, content scope, and disclosure obligations can change with little notice. StateTilt may restrict access in additional jurisdictions where regulatory action, litigation risk, or operational constraints make continued service impractical. Subscribers are responsible for confirming that the use of StateTilt complies with the laws of their jurisdiction; StateTilt makes no representation of legal availability outside the jurisdictions in which the service is offered.

Tax treatment of crypto-asset holdings, gains, and losses varies by jurisdiction and changes over time. The subscriber is solely responsible for tax reporting, record-keeping, and payment obligations. StateTilt does not file tax returns on behalf of subscribers, does not provide tax advice, and does not warrant that any presentation of returns or gains on the site is suitable for tax purposes.

Even a well-calibrated indicator can be misused. Acting on StateTilt output without an underlying plan, a sized position, and a tested risk-management routine can amplify losses. StateTilt research is intended as a research input, not as a substitute for the subscriber's own decision process.