Notes from the watch.
Live · Notes from the buildWhat the Opening Window Showed
We wrote down what would count as passing before the window opened. Here is the honest read of what held — and what it does not prove.
Read the noteEvery issue, the same shape. Never more.
A regime question.
The structural question behind the latest reading. What changed in Bitcoin’s own price and volume behaviour — the only thing the model measures — that the model is reading differently?
A methodology note.
A plain explanation of a single part of the framework — how an input works, where it fails, what the audit chain looks like for a recent decision. Pulled forward from the project journal.
A brief macro reading.
A brief reading of the macro backdrop — same posture as the daily readings. Same caveats: descriptive, not predictive; research, not advice.
The archive.
Every issue published stays here. Issues are dated, and a material change made after publication is noted on the issue itself.